Each year The World Future Society rounds up the most thought-provoking forecasts and ideas about the future. These brief items are gleaned from articles and news stories appearing in THE FUTURIST magazine and Futurist Update, the Society’s monthly electronic newsletter.

As the year 2005 nears consider the following forecasts and ideas:

Business and Economics

Global wage gap is closing. Rapid income growth in China and southern Asia is helping to narrow average income inequality worldwide. This represents a turn around over historic trends.

Debt woes forecast for young Americans. Ten percent of America’s generation Y (born between 1977 and 1997) are considered clinically compulsive spenders---a significantly higher proportion than among the baby boomers. Researchers blame the early and widespread use of credit cards: 80% of Gen Y’ers have them, and half got their first in high school.

Demography

World population will begin to decline in the next century. World population is now estimated to peak at 9.1 billion in 2100, far lower than the 1988 estimate of 12 billon.

Obesity soars among young people. Adolescents are becoming obese at a faster rate worldwide than are middle-aged people. The World Health Organization estimates that more than 17.5 children under age five are overweight. Some experts blame food advertisers, who run about half of all television ads during children’s viewing times.

Mother shortage ahead? Fertility rates are currently so low that an average of only 65 daughters will be produced by every 100 women of reproductive age, demographers estimate. In India, the sex ratio among children dropped by nearly 2% during the 1990’s. The disappearance of girls in India stems from sex-selective abortions and infanticides. As the population of potential future mothers shrinks, making up for missing girls will become increasingly difficult.

Education

Policing of language in textbooks could lead to loss of ideas. Efforts by both conservative and liberal groups to remove potentially offensive or upsetting language from children’s textbooks are also removing ideas from education. References to poverty, prejudice, death, and divorce for instance are removed from texts because they may disturb some students. Some argue that such overzealous political correctness amounts to the censorship and loss of important educational ideas.

More students and trainees will attend class virtually. By 2008 distance learning (via the Internet, e-mail, or other technologies) will become the main method used in 30% of training programs. By 2014, it will be the main method used in 30% of university courses.

Health:

Future doctors may prescribe a dose of positive thinking. Psychologists studying happiness and well-being believe that having a positive emotional style could decrease you susceptibility to disease. Positive people tend to take better care of themselves than more negatively minded people.

More people will be smiling in the future. Whether they’re happier or not, more people will be able to show off beautiful smiles thanks to advanced corrective and cosmetic dentistry. Future beauty salons may even have dentists and plastic surgeons on staff.

Resources:

Water wars could prevent the real kind. Working out their conflicts over water may help countries and

OUTLOOK 2005 (continued)

regions resolve other conflicts. Cooperation among Israelis, Jordanians, and Palestinians on water issues in the Jordon River basin, for instance, involves processes of negotiation and decision making that could serve as a model for collaboration.

Fish prices are jumping. The world’s appetite for fish is increasing, but fish catches have leveled off. Threats to future supplies of fish include not just over fishing, but also climate change.

For more forecasts and ideas refer to the November-December, 2004 issue of THE FUTURIST magazine. The World Future Society welcomes comments and feedback. E-mail your comments to letters@wfs.org

Prepared by: Sue E. Williams

Family Policy & Leadership Development Specialist

333F HES, Oklahoma State University

Stillwater, OK 74078-6111

(405) 744-6282

sue.williams@okstate.edu